Lineups, Formations, Tactics, Stats, etc.

The way i explain xG to noobs is its the 'chance of or likelyhood' of the guy putting the ball into the net 'BASED' off the position he is in to put the ball in the net. Its the probability of the shot finding its way intot he goal per chance. The higher the xG the more chance the shot should go into the goal. It gets a bit mixed up when you can take 30 shots, 19 can be on frame, and the keeper saves every single one or you hit the post. So it debunks the xG stat every time.

The data behind xG is to depict the potential of the shot taker. You shouldn't judge players performances or abilities on the xG per match or overall. its a statistical metric, and changes and varies from match to match. There for it isn't a metric used to accurately assess a players performance.

Sidenote: it is a stat thats looked over, but not taken into much relevance.

 

Very interesting.

 

I understand how it’s calculated and I have my own opinion about whether or not it’s useful.

 

xG will never tell you who played better soccer on that day. It can give the assumption who should have won, but it doesn't provide the data needed tell if a player had a good day or bad day.

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One data point John Doyle had the second best xG in 2000 behind Dario Brose and ahead of Abdul Conteh and Ronald Cerritos.

 

Wide open net, inches from goal, with one of MLS' all-time leading goal-scorers directly facing the goal. What do the models say is the xG?

 

Wondo facing away from goal with players all around him. xG?

 

I remember being at this game sitting next to Saunders mom, she yelled "JOSH STOP PICKING YOUR ASS AND FOCUS" LOOOOOOOOOOOOL

 

They are shaky, and uncoordinated. Also, Gruezo is a terrible d-mid. Don't overlook the shit DM.

Our guys don't play like a unit. They are not going "forward as one." I wonder if they don't know or understand their assignments?

Either way, Luchi is at fault.

Go Quakesfans!!

 

Thanks for all the help on this.

I think that we play like crap. We're poorly organized, we don't work well together, we ball watch too much. My analysis tells me that Luchi needs to go.

Go Quakesfans!!

 

Oh, we give up a lot of goals on second balls. There's kaos in the box, and we miss the bouncing ball. We think we've cleared it, but it's only at the top of the box.

We're very poorly organized.

Go Quakesfans!!

 

So we’ve been in losing positions 36% of the time but we’ve lost nearly every game. Wow…

 

LMAO AT DALLAS

 

It's funny until you realize that their 1% in winning position is against us - last minute goal by Scott Sealy's son .

 

I see from these charts, that um … we suck.

I need to drink more.

Go Quakesfans!!

 

Actually the charts say that we don't suck as much as we suck. Like mid-pack xGA yet -10 on xGA-GA? Or, we've been in winning or tying positions 64% of the time, yet we've won 1 and lost 7? Weird.

 

I think I will carry on being a wastrel for the rest of the weekend and check out the score After we lose. It will be less stressful that way.

Go Quakesfans!!

 

No, that just means that we take the lead, and then give it up. We still suck.

 

Of course, we haven't been able to finish.

 

Not great when average pitch speed is probably going up every year in baseball, with the tendency towards lower number of innings pitched, etc. Seems like so many hard throwers now.

 

The Hernan news has me in an optimistic mood, so I'm going to keep it going. I get that XG isn't perfect, but no amount of imperfections can explain away this:


This is team-level GA and XGA. I hope you can find the Quakes.

I also don't think bad goalkeeping can possibly explain that deviation of goals allowed from XGA.

So my prediction for the rest of the season -- the bounces start evening out, Hernan sparks the offense, and we end up finishing 10th.

 

That's pretty much exactly where I'm at. It hinges though on Hernan actually getting signed for real, and actually being good (likely) and not getting injured (knock on wood). Of course 10th means we miss the playoffs but at least there'd be hope for next year. The main reason I'm bullish in Hernan is that his profile is exactly the kind of player we need. He could even be a little bit of a disappointment but still help us because he has a skillset that we desperately need.

 

Tenth in West last year had 43 points. Which is 40 more than Quakes currently have. With 25 games to go. Need more than 1.5 points per game. Not buying it.

 

1.5 PPG is winning 1/2 your games. The Quakes schedule is a little back weighted with home games. We are in the midst of a 7 of 10 on the road run. So if the timing works out and Hernan is actually signed and is available during some home-heavy spate of games, we could gain some ground. Whether we'd get to 43 points, I don't know but I think it's possible.