Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

As I've shown before, the LGBT+ community has been expressing its frustration as well. Keep in mind this is a group that had about a +30 point swing to Biden in the midterms (I think it was nationally rather than just Ohio, I presented the numbers for both earlier in this thread). That 30 point swing creates a 2% shift in the national vote (assuming I did the math right), given LGBT+ represent 7% of voters.

 

Saying we're not voting for Biden and there's nothing you can do about it tends to do that sort of thing.

 

Wait, in 81 states?


On a more serious note, I was thinking about polls today. The general consensus is that we shouldn't trust polls this far out - just look at Michael Dukakis. But I can't help but think that maybe we can trust the polls this far out more than usual. Specifically, it's not like people don't really know the candidates, as was the case with Dukakis. We know exactly who the orange idiot is and who Biden is - albeit less so with RFKJr. Do we think there is a large group of truly undecided voters?

 

Holy frak you won't believe it. Russia has 46 oblasts, 22 republics, 9 krais, and 4 autonomous okrugs. That means Russia has the equivalent of 81 states.

 

I'm new to this side of the forum - but enticed to hear what people think will happen.. trump is probably the favorite as of right now but who knows this is the quiet part of the election cycle before the conventions + summer nobody really pays attention until after labor day.

 

.@AymanM: It's not hyperbolic to say if Trump wins this election, this could be the last White House Correspondents’ Dinner. He said he wants to lock up journalists, sue news outlets for covering his failures, and invoke the Insurrection Act to go after protesters pic.twitter.com/p9qM5dPKds

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) April 28, 2024

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68893186

 

I think that poll may be an outlier having said that, if that it is what the American people wants, by all means..... This is simply mind blowing that 1 or 2 voters can believe that Trump should be re-elected. We are truly doomed......

Trump Maintains National Lead Over Biden

A new CNN poll shows Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in the presidential race nationally, 49% to 43%.

Key takeaway: “Looking back, 55% of all Americans now say they see Trump’s presidency as a success, while 44% see it as a failure. In a January 2021 poll taken just before Trump left office and days after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, 55% considered his time as president a failure.”

“Assessing Biden’s time in office so far, 61% say his presidency thus far has been a failure, while 39% say it’s been a success.”

 

Wasn't that a saying of the Obama team. Get caught trying.

 

That is down to press coverage. Trump's failures have been minimized, Biden s success isn't talked about but his struggles are. Not to mention lack of context of US vs the world.

 

Just looking at the CBS Michigan poll that came out today. Two questions focus on the abortion issue:




Question 33 is pretty consistent with the national polls. In this case 62% are not happy about Roe being overturned. But Question 34 highlights 62% also don't blame the orange idiot for it. Those 38% who do were probably Democrat voters to begin with.

In other words, abortion might not be as big a factor in the presidential election as some are saying.

I made that point earlier when looking at the 2020 and 2022 exit polls for both Nationally and Ohio specifically. Again, I'm not the expert at these things but I don't see abortion moving the needle as much as people seem to assume. The National exit polls I mentioned showed LGBT+ voters shifted Democrat, impacting the general election results by 2%. The same could not be said when looking at the female vote. This Michigan poll helps explain why in my mind.

 

And neither Pa. That Emerson poll is garbage.

 

Not sure what do you see in these two parties: Republicans, Democrats…the parties create the primary candidates, not the people, the voters.
Sarah Palin? Donald Trump? Joe Biden? If you observe both parties, you would really pick Biden and Trump? Everyone would pick someone who is younger, brighter, more competent…

We vote for those who are placed in front of the party. So many party members and we got these two as the best ones? Imagine others?

Elections are for those who are the party fans. The candidate can be a person, maybe even cactus…

Citizens don’t have any personal benefit. The usual office transition. New wars abroad, erecting the old tensions in the name of people, oil and trading / traffic route's.

Champions League started. Good luck, PSG.