Ukraine vs Russia III

Yeah….but why is that more important than the negative affect public statements like this have on our ally? Why not something like…”we have no opinion or comment on these attacks other than to state we are not involved, our weapons systems were not involved, and if you want them to stop you can make that happen by GTFO of Ukraine”

 

Because the US and its allies have back channels where the US can express its true feelings about such things.

 

According to Reuters, Russia has started to import gasoline from Belarus.

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...-belarus-domestic-supplies-shrink-2024-03-27/

 

I’m not talking about government officials. I’m talking about every day Ukrainians. The ones risking their lives and dying. The ones with real first hand experience of the affects of us slowing and stopping military aid. Those people.

 

Ukraine's actions is more than offsetting any negative impact from the US's public posturing. The lack of funding being passed by Congress is doing far more damage to the morale of Ukrainians than anything US's public statements are.

 

You don’t think most Ukrainians are sophisticated enough to identify what’s driving the congressional disfunction? That it’s not Biden and the state department actually holding things up? It just seems spectacularly tone deaf to me.

 

They don't particularly care because the end result is the same.

 

Can someone explain to me *why* Belgorod city is under drone and artillery attack tonight.

 

It’s a symbol to show how Putin is motivated by personal goals, not by caring for the Russian people.

 

Because the Russian military hasn't really responded to the incursion from the anti-Putin forces and the anti-Putin forces aren't large enough to push further into Russia than they already have.

 

I think the chances he uses nuclear weapons is low, but not zero. I think he has totally identifies Russia as an extension of himself, and if there is no chance of a Russia as he wants it, then I think it's possible that he would rather see it and his enemies destroyed than go on living.

US policy since before the invasion started has always been shaped in a way to give him an out.

 

Military vehicle oddity time. In the late stages of the Cold War, the Soviet Union built some specialty vehicles based on the T-80 tank called the "Ladoga". I don't know how many, but it wasn't a lot. It was designed to carry officials through nuclear devastated land, such as from the Kremlin to the airport, and was heavily armored in case the bombs were still falling. It has a large cabin with comfortable chairs for four with some wood furnishings and a lot of TVs to see what's going on outside. One was used at Chernobyl. It's the kind of thing that only exists these days in dusty warehouses or museums.

It really looks like a Ukrainian drone took one out recently.

 

Not every Russian is lucky enough to ride to the front in a nuclear apocalypse limousine.

As many sources have already written, Russians began to use the Desertcross 1000-3 much more often on the front line. Now some tactics of their use by Russians in assaults have begun to become clear. A Russian unit consisting of 5-8 infantrymen on each “golf cart” moves to the… pic.twitter.com/FBRDBLedmo

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 22, 2024

I don't know why everyone calls it a "golf cart". It's a farm utility vehicle. That's... ok, that's not a lot better.

But be careful about the video. It gets pretty bloody about a minute and a half in.

 

1:19 or so is hellish. Dystopian. Terrifying.

 

Ukrainian drones effect:
Russian daily gasoline production is down sharply, 14.3% below last year.
Chart shows 1,000 tons per day



source: MMI (Telegram). Data source: Rosstat.
https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/48_27-03-2024.html

 

FYP

 

It is. There was some 80's and 90's science fiction that kind of thought in this direction, but the reality is orders of magnitude more frightening and bizarre than they imagined. And currently there's a limit based on the numbers of pilots and frequencies to communicate. When they start to fly themselves it's going to get worse.

 

Normally the month of May is one of the periods when Russia's refineries go through their maintenance cycles. The Russian government has already said that they will be postponing the maintenance because they need the production to stay as high as possible. If Ukraine keeps up the pressure and affects the main maintenance cycle in September-October, it could have a lot of knock-on effects due to breakdowns.

 

True, but most of the effects will be on the civilian economy side. As long as some refineries are operational, the army will always get enough fuel but the civilian economy - especially transport and distribution - will face either shortages and the resulting black market or prices increases, which will fuel inflation.

My 10 cents worth is that the Ukrainians should prioritize hitting the refineries that produce aviation fuel. Those are fewer in number and IIRC the distillation towers are a bit more complex and therefore more expensive to produce than for producing petrol/gasoline and diesel because jet fuel is more highly refined (i.e. processed at a higher temperatures to remove more of the impurities).

War is about attrition and production rates. It isn't sexy, but it gets the results.

 

For the duration of the war, Russians have been asking "what air defence doing?"

In a spirit of Christian charity, I offer the following to help them answer that question

In occupied #Crimea, Russian air defense units shot down their own Su-27 in a friendly fire incident…pic.twitter.com/ERpRRsSeWV

— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) March 28, 2024

 

If you want to turn civilians against the war, forcing them to pay more at the gas pumps is a good way to do it. Alternatively, gas in Russia is heavily subsidized, increasing the price of gas means the government has to spend more of its ever decreasing resources to keep the price low for civilians.

 

Zelensky gave an interview yesterday and is sounding a lot more optimistic

Zelensky: "We have stabilized the situation. It is better than it used to be two or three months ago when we had a big deficit of artillery ammunition, different kinds of weapons. We totally didn't see the big, huge counteroffensive from Russia. They didn't have success."
​

Bravo to Czechia!