what would be ideal result this coming Wednesday? Portugal win, and... Germany beating Holland Holland beating Germany or a tie with Holland Germany ??
Alrighty. This is where the bacalhau hits the road. Denmark has a solid team with great teamwork and they thoroughly understand and implement their tactics (and Bendtner always scores on us). I think we can win this one, but it will be tough. The best scenario, I think, is Germany beating Holland with us beating Denmark. This gives Germany 6 points with Denmark to face, and Germany never lets up on the third game even when qualified. The Danes will play to beat Germany but Germany won't back down and play scrubs (do they have scrubs?). Holland will have to attack us to get 3 points to have any hope of going to the next round. Which opens up their lackluster defense to our counters. But I can easily see this group tied at 3 points, all with 1 goal each at the end of the 2nd round. Gonna be crazy.
Can we get Nelson Oliviera starting please!!!??? Portugal needs to beat Denmark 2-0 so we can take a goal differential lead...Germany beat Netherlands. We need 2-0 and a Germany win to get in 2nd place after the 2nd round is over. So that will leave... Germany 6pts Portugal 3 (+1) Denmark 3 (0) Nethands 0
i considered this exact scenario in my mind yesterday, but that would leave Germany nothing to play for (after all but securing first place) and Holland playing freely, looking to put the nail in coffin of Portugal after all the losses of years past...
The possibilities are making my head hurt looking at the potential tiebreakers: 8.07 If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following criteria are applied, in the order given; to determine the rankings: a) higher number of points obtained in the matches among the teams in question; b) superior goal difference in the matches among the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal on points); c) higher number of goals scored in the matches among the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal on points); d) superior goal difference in all the group matches; e) higher number of goals scored in all the group matches; f) position in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system (see Annex I, paragraph 1.2.2); g) fair play conduct of the teams (final tournament); h) drawing of lots. Source: http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles...ions/Regulations/91/48/36/914836_DOWNLOAD.pdf It's too soon to tell, however I think it's pretty clear that the result we don't want is for the Dutch to beat Germany. As for the Denmark game, we typically seem to allow at least one goal when we match up with them and that possibility seems just as likely this time around considering we will be pushing forward and be susceptible to the counter attack. We need to go in with a mindset of getting two goals or more both to win and for goal differential purposes. I would like to see us play Varela from the start, and allow CR and Nani to roam and to play on the same wing at times. I think that would make us very hard to defend.
Best possibility is Portugal winning and Netherlands losing. I picked Portugal to finish 2nd in the group behind Germany and I'm sticking to it.
I'm a little scared of Germany easing up on Denmark if they defeat Holland. I think the best result is a 2 goal win for Portugal and a draw between Germany-Holland Germany 4 pts Portugal 3 pts (+1) Denmark 3 pts (0) Holland 1 point That way Germany plays for 1st place and defeats Denmark.. All we need is a draw vs. Holland. If Germany defeats Holland, it's alright but I prefer a draw to ensure they play game 3 hard. We definitely don't want a dutch victory though.
That was my first thought, that Germany would let off the gas if they went into the 3rd game already qualified. But, then I thought, Germany never lets off the gas. They will play to win. They understand the psychology of losing that third game and the damage it does. They'll go all out. However, I see a Dutch and Portuguese win. If Portugal doesn't win, this may make it the longest streak we've gone without winning a game...even worse than with CQ?!?!?! I'll have to check the stats, but I'm too lazy.
I think this might very well be the game where Bento surprises us with the tactics. Ronaldo at centre forward? I hope so. Varela/Nani on the wings? Why not? We need goals 1 goal in three games is lousy. We've been attacking at all areas but are unlucky. Time to change that.
Worth noting: Nelo scored three goals today in practice. I think he just may have won him a spot against Denmark.
The Dutch scored the highest amount of goals in qualifying, and they couldn't solve Denmark's defensive riddle. That is really alarming for us, so we're really in for a tough match to win let alone score in. Hopefully luck is on our side for once. I expect a draw, nothing more. When i higher my expectations and they aren't met, i end up breaking something in the house like i did in 2010.
I don't think beating Denmark will be easy at all. I'm thinking we'll draw this one BUT I hope I'm wrong.
Yeah, but we've played Denmark recently. We know their playing style and should be able to adapt from our horrid play list game (and we have a lot of players back who weren't there in last game). I see a narrow win 1-0 or 2-1.
This Denmark game might be tougher than the Germany one. Denmark knows that we don't know how to break the big massive parked bus in front of their net and they will exploit us on the counter. over and over again. We need our tall players in their area all the time for the bombardments of cross ins. I know Hugo had a fever but if he is better, I wouldn't mid seeing Hugo and Nelo up there with Ronny and Nani crossing them in. Heck through Bruno and pepe up there if we get desperate too.
I think we will be fine against Denmark, Netherlands were very unlucky not to score and screwed up some very good chances... we lost our last match against Denmark so I don't think we will be underestimating them, we missed a lot of chances against Germany but I don't think that will be the case this time.. we need this win
Just played the fifa game... Portugal won 3-1 against Denmark. And Ronaldo scored 2 goals. Not that helps, but seems plausible.
If I were the coach, I'd play CR/Nelo upfront with Varela/Nani occupying the wings... It might be of a risk, but we need freakin' goals. Ronaldo will always be triple teamed at the wings, as CF, he can do anything.
Something has to be done, especially with a Denmark team that absolutely shut Portugal down last fall up next. If CR is going to be 10th on the team in touches anyway then it makes no sense to have him recessed so far into the midfield, having to create his own chances from so far out and with no open space to do so. Let him chase the ball up front or have Nani in the middle of the pitch. If there's going to be typical No. 9, let it be Oliveira. I'm not saying it's time for anything desperate, but Portugal can't fall behind against Denmark or it's in big trouble. As much as I thought Portugal had a fair enough game plan and executed it well against Germany, I still spent a good chunk depressed that Portugal had to play such a style, which at times looked awfully similar to the 2010 match vs. Spain. Portugal wasn't that negative, but it seemed about as unlikely to score as two years ago. I expect the same lineup but with a different CF.
My heart says we can go through. My brain says no way in hell. I think Nelo should play as CF. Like we have tried this Postiga and Hugo Almedia junk for years and it doesn't work. Sometimes I think Portugal is afraid to take chances.
Ok. Here's the deal with the Denmark game: Yes, they defend well. Yes, they beat us 2-1 last time. BUT: 1) We haven't really struggled so much to score against them. To wit: 2) In Lisbon, in a do-or-die game, we beat them handily 3-1. 3) The 1-2 defeat was in a game where, frankly, we showed up to play for a draw (both teams would have qualified) except the Danes didn't get the memo. They took the game to us from opening kick-off and we never adjusted. Kudos to Denmark but that ain't happening this time. This game is much more like the game in Lisbon where we _had_ to win. Also, Pepe, not Rolando is back there... Although we got disappointing results in the last 2 games (Turkey and Germany), we have shown a lot of progress. Our team defense has finally returned - the midfield has finally started protecting our FBs and we are able to apply pressure again. The fact that we could pressure the vaunted Germany midfield into coughing the ball so much towards the end of the game and we pressured them non-stop is a -very- good sign. For the 1st time in a while I am cautiously optimistic. I sense that we got our MoJo back against Germany (if ever there was a moral defeat) and we are due to score some goals. Denmark is certainly capable of winning this game but Portugal will NOT underestimate them. Expect a tough game but I think we have the tools, the tactics and, importantly, the belief to win. Between Nani, Ronaldo and Nelo/Postiga somebody will score.
I have a better question, when will the next Portuguese goal off of a corner occur? it must be approaching close to a 100 corners without a goal.
Yes! Which sucks b/c we generate so many corners. Between Ronaldo, Alves, Pepe, Almeida and Postiga (all good headers of the ball) we should score more frequently. Oh, and biggest waster of chances recently has been Alves. He's had 2 wide open headers in the last couple of games. I am calling he gets one the next game. Third time is a charm...