Hello, I have a question and that is related to the pre-tournament favorites of past euros and world cups. A good way to assess this are the odds of the bigger bookmakers. Does anyone an idea what they were and where you that can find? I have only fragmentary 'evidence.'
1986 World Cup, article 10/06/1986 Mentions a change of favorites at the 'London bookmakers'. Pre-tournament odds, two days before kick-off, were: Brazil 11:4 Argentina 4:1 Italy 12:1 England 12:1 Denmark 14:1 West-Germany 14:1 France 14:1 USSR 25:1
Interesting that France weren't lower odds in '86. From another thread (does Messi need to win World Cup etc):
Maybe someone has access to The Times archive, an subscriber or someone who works as a researcher. I bet many can be found there because The Times always had a rather good sports section.
2010 World Cup Spain 5:1 Brazil 6:1 England 8:1 Argentina 8.5:1 Netherlands 13:1 Italy 15:1 Germany 16.5:1 France 22:1
January 1982 (in May and June the London bookmakers closed their shop because there was fear for fixing) Brazil 9:4 West Germany 4:1 Argentina 7:1 Spain 7:1 Does not mention the other countries unfortunately. Says only that those four are the 'heavy favorites', which suggests that they had an advantage over the others [England, Italy, France].
I find this very "odd". France supposed to be the favorite heading into the WC Finals. The rest of them seemed reasonable. The ones for WC 1982 was exactly how I remembered it.
The article itself mentions a few things: The record of France in the qualification was not stellar, they even lost a few times. France was still an team without much exposure (i.e. it was not England or Germany with their fancied players). The players playing in France were not high profiled. That is also why the Netherlands rarely has low odds - 1998 ones also seem a bit strange in hindsight. The most important one: Platini had an injury, the superstar of euro84.
I did think about that one - perhaps they'd been shorter odds in the weeks/months/2 years previous? I've read/heard of Maradona saying that he at that stage wasn't seen as the predicted star of the tournament (perhaps underplaying his reputation, but pointing to the likes of Platini and Zico I think although Zico had his own injury troubles of course and was 4 years older than in 1982). With that in mind Argentina's odds seem low at 4/1 (as opposed to 1982, but then I believe some posters here have mentioned that in '82 it wasn't a case of simply the World Cup winners from '78 plus Maradona - a lot of players weren't in the same form including Kempes). Mexico being in America was probably seen as a factor, and in the end the bookmakers/punters who backed Argentina to lower their price if that was what had happened....were proven wise.
Any reason why you wanted this info Puck? Got a few bets in the fire for the Euros with the sole purpose of trading for a tidy profit ;-)
They were legitimate favorites, and despite Platini’s tendinitis injury, he still was seen as a force to be reckoned with. In fact, many predicted him as the future star of the event along with Maradona. Platini in the beginning of the tournament said: “For the first time in our history we are authentic favorites. I don’t know if it’s the best moment in French football, but all I can say is that if we are receiving recognition it’s because we’ve done something, but I can’t predict the future”. This was stated in an interview conducted by an Argentine reporter for the magazine of El Grafico. But after the WC not even his injury saved him from being received as a scapegoat in France.
We discussed that indeed in another thread indeed. As I said there, it is my personal judgement that Argentina was in 1982 a major outsider but not a favorite per se. In 1986, I think Maradona's fans have downplayed his status and that of his team at that time. Argentina was a major favorite, Cruijff over here had them even at #1 with as argument that it was played in Mexico indeed. He had Germany at #2 because they prepared themselves always very well, with a lot of means - and connections - at their disposal. He had arguably read the history books because the preparation in Mexico1970 was also a major force behind the German successes then. Brazil, he thought, was too old. Michels had Argentina at #2. Furthermore, lets not forget that Argentina had many players at the top rated positions in that tournament. Yes, some person stood out above the rest, even more so in a few matches, but they had also many other fine players, I believe. By the way, the 'new' odd of France between brackets was 9:1. I think it is indeed a typo (i.e. it changed from 9:1 to 14:1) because France started their 1986 tournament underwhelming. 9:1 is the correct ratio I think. It is still not extremely high.
Martin Tyler mentioned prior to the event that most people saw the finals as Platini vs Maradona. Maradona was underplaying it and never wanting his team to be regarded as favorites. Zico was pretty much out of the question, while Rummenigge was seen as a higher bet. Here’s what some people said prior to the event: Question number 3 is in regards to who will be the star of the WC.
That was exactly the same reaction of Platini after an reporter said to him that "France appears to be past their prime". It was at that time covered that quite a few key players were between 29-33. Battiston, Bossis, Platini, Rocheteau, Giresse. This was an article of 27/05/1986 [I came across it when I was looking for the odds and an original source].
Anyway, it is I think a typo. The correct odds, pre-tournament should be: Brazil 11:4 Argentina 4:1 France 9:1 Italy 12:1 England 12:1 Denmark 14:1 West-Germany 14:1 USSR 25:1 The 14:1 odds are probably the ones after the first two group matches. It is nonsensical that it would have risen to 9:1 after two underwhelming games, the article even mentions it.
Good info. Pat Jennings picked out his team-mate David Campbell (a Nottingham Forest player actually) as star of the WC? Number 2 is which country will win the tournament and number 1 the surprise team? Number 4 I guess is the predicted revelation(s)? btw, I wonder then if the 'change of favourites' in '86 was from France to Brazil indeed or from Argentina to Brazil?
Maybe number 2 is 'team to watch' or something as I can't think players would be choosing teams other than their own to win (especially Socrates for example).