Predicting the 2023 WWC roster

I think you were looking at the "above average" stat without normalizing them to every 90mins. I believe to normalize the stats to every 96mins and set a minimum mins played for each player (like 300 min or 500 min, depends on the stage of the league) and select "above replacement (the average goals added for different positions is not the same, so above the replacement enable the sensible comparison of players playing different positions)" could make this stats more informative.

 

Bold Face = USA WCC Champion

So are we to conclude that if the USA women do not win this time around, the USSF should FIRE VLATKO becase the USA squad has too many newbies and is neither old nor young enough? Which, of course, would mean ignoring that the data so far suggest it is not possible for the USA women to win this time around since history says no one can win three in a row.

 

Press and Heath aren't chopped liver, either, FWIW.

On top of Sauerbrunn & Sam Mewis. Missing a LOT of high quality players.

 

Greg Ryan got fired even though he blitzed Norway, 4-0, for third place at the 2007 WC.

My prediction would be US looses semis to Spain/Sweden, so would he loose his job for again an 3rd/4th finish?

plus really feel the USSF would have to take into consideration the very easy path afforded this time, taking them into the semis while only playing one FIFA top 19 ranked team—-and that’s Netherlands missing it’s one man army(Miedema)

 

I think the drubbing by Brazil after the goalkeeping fiasco is what got Ryan fired. A 1-0 loss in extra time would have been different. I expect that Vlatko will get a pass due to injuries unless the US drastically under-performs. If say Norway eliminate the US in the quarters I think the manager has to go.

I'm not sure that we aren't the favorite against Spain or Sweden. I think if Spain had done what France did and sacked their manager they would be the favorites. But I'm not convinced that winning friendlies will turn into a tournament wins given Alexia being unfit and missing important players from the 15.

Re: selections, I'm more worried about the center backs than about the attackers. I don't see Ash Hatch as being an international level difference maker. I mean, Katie Stengel, who is in many ways a similar player, had a much better year than Hatch has in her season at Liverpool, and I wouldn't put her on the plane instead of the attacking players we are bringing. I don't know that with the exception of Portugal we are going to play against a team that really bunkers--maybe Sweden, but there will some room to play against Sweden. I don't trust Sonnet at CB and I don't know about Ertz either given the timing, so we are hoping that our center back pairing makes it through and comes up big in the moments asked.

 

Looking at the knock out rounds, the U.S. has a pretty easy path through the round of 16 (our likely opponent in that round would be Italy).

Then it gets tough. quarter finals: likely US vs Spain. If we win that then --

semi-finals US vs (likely) Sweden, and if we win that --

finals US vs likely either England or Germany.

 

Miedema is a fine player, but the Netherlands can be a good team without her and a tough opponent.

 

There are many reasons why friendlies may not turn into tournament wins, and some of those also apply to the USA. I see these tournaments as more about styles than individuals. Spain will be Spain no matter which 11 play. Their structure and style won't change. The USA seem less predictable and more personnel dependent. Most of these teams are going through some form of adversity be it injuries, federation support or both. This is as unpredictable WC as I can remember.

Im not saying I disagree about Hatch, but what makes an International difference maker? the message that is coming across from some of the selections is that people can play a position part-time better than the next viable alternative who plays it full time in a league that is being marketed as the best in the world. Why is Hatch scoring goals in the NWSL not enough to make the team but DeMelo doing the same is? Is DeMelo an international difference maker? If so, why has she not been given an opportunity in games to show that? Looking at the potential defenders, I see no left footed profiles, at least 3 players who dont occupt the same position consistently for thier Club.

All that said, its a ko event and it will come down to moments because most of the Tier 1 teams are not capable of dominating vs each other.

 

This positional flexibility thing is misleading. Most player profiles suit a particular usage. It is a true unicorn that can play multiple positions at a world-class level. Most of them could play multiple positions as long as other changes are made to balance the shift in strengths/weaknesses, but is that optimal? Dunn has played her NWSL career in attacking roles, scored goals and been part of winning teams. Her primary role on WNT team is LB/RB. Is that the best LB/RB we have, someone who plays there part-time and only for the NT. What does that say about the other candidates? We dont have a single left footed defender on the roster. I think we have 3 on the entire roster. Morgan, Lavelle,Mewis. No left-footed winger. Have we ever? Davidson, Staab, and Pickett deserved a long look over this cycle for being left-footed alone!

 

While the left- and right-footed distinction matters, one has to be a little careful with it. For example, Rapinoe can deliver the ball well with either foot. So can Smith. I think both technically are right footed, but ambidextrously footed might be a bit of a better description.

But, I agree with you the team is a little short on left footedness. (Apparently, about 20 percent of the population is left footed.)

Overall, ambidextrously footed is even better. One of the things lacking in the youth soccer I have seen is an emphasis on being able to play the ball equally well with both feet.

 

ABSOLUTELY CORRECT !!!

 

Number007’s post is correct and suggests something important: The 23 best individual players are not necessarily the ones who should be on the team. The ones who should be on the team are the 23 who can be put together in a combination that produces the best team. This means that player selection is much more nuanced than might appear to be the case on the surface.

 

Davidson got her looks. She struggled badly with Red Stars (I say this while also saying that Kruger played well for Red Stars). Pickett got called into camp and she got time in friendlies. What more do you want? He needs to get his core team together as much as possible as his time with them is limited. I don't think Staab has national team level technical ability.

 

So I'm making the assumption that we face either Italy or Norway in the quarterfinal, do I have that right(assuming no upsets and based off FIFA rankings)? I remember glancing at the bracket yesterday but I may have already forgot some of the possible teams that face US in the knock out stages(again assuming we make it out of the group in 1st place)

If that's the case, that might make for an easier quarterfinal than some of the other brackets.

However, if we get through the quarterfinals I believe we either face Sweden or Spain in the semifinal, those are two teams that have our number and always struggling against in tournaments.

If we somehow get past them, then our final can possibly be either England or Germany(assuming no upsets)

 

Provided there’s no upsets & the US wins its group, then they’ll face #15 Italy in round of 16, either #11 Japan or #12 Norway in the quarters, either #3 Sweden or #6 Spain in the semis.
The other half of the bracket trying to get into the finals is way stronger as it got six top ten teams; England Germany France Australia Brazil Canada. Several months ago I would have picked England too as finalists, but since then have had injuries to 3 major players(Mead, Kirby, Williamson all be missing) plus reports that their current starting CB’s(Bright & Greenwood) got hurt during recent training. France might be in similar vein as they’ll be missing Katoto & Cascarino/Diani could be out as well , & then not sure if others known names like Henry & Le Sommer even made the team.
Germany coached by what I call an demented genius(someone who readily forgets what works the previous time). So I’m picking either Australia or Brazil to make it into finals vs my prediction of Spain(beating US in the other semis)

Staab has the nice, long ball, throw in that nearly reaches the goal mouth—giving another corner like chances. But simply looked miserable trying to defend or keep up the other day vs Sydney Smith, it’s like she didn’t even know how to tackle—foreign teams will intentional foul Sydney over & over before they let her start going

Miedema arguably could have been the best player in the world over the last five years, and then missing too is coach Wiegman—a very important aspect of their previous success.. So the Dutch have not looked good the last couple of years cultivating in a disappointing Euros last year. There is some future hope though—-their ‘school of soccer’ system is 2nd to none, as we’ve seen with that strong showing by their u20 squad last year(3-0 win over the US), but so far nine of those players has an major impact. If only their major clubs would step up & pay respectable salaries, then they wouldn’t have to leave like traveling vagabonds to play for other leagues around the world

 

Nailed it - (Group and Group finish) based on FIFA ranking:

 

thanks—maybe the other half of the bracket the outcomes be slightly different than the rankings, I predict Australia over Canada & Brazil over France for 1st place in their respective groups(thus they’ll run into each other in the semis)

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forgot to mention, the US might suffer an jinx —-whoever wins the SBC, has yet to win that same year an major world tournament

 

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