Ukraine vs Russia III

Yes, there have been many attempts, some successful, at sabotage by the Russians. It's not direct acts by Russian government agents, but offers to pay anyone to do certain things and then people in Western countries sign up. Here's an article on how they do it in Estonia, but this is going on in virtually all European nations.

https://theins.press/en/politics/272989

 

Ukraine attacked another oil depot, this time near Rostov. I don't know why Ukraine switched from refineries to depots. I would think taking out a refinery for a few weeks would be more damaging to Russia, and burning large amounts of actual oil would do more to raise world oil prices so I don't think it's pressure from the US. It's probably because they are easier targets now, as there are too many depots to protect with anti-air defenses.

 

They've also probably used the same tactics too many times and diminishing returns have set in as the Russians work the tactics out. Moscow may also have deployed too many air defence systems for the Ukrainians' liking and it's time to look for new weapons to hit the refineries.

Now the game is to find new targets to make the Russians' run their air defences around again.

 

We have a couple clips from security footage at the oil depot attacked yesterday, and it seems the only defenses Russia has are soldiers equipped with those hand held sci-fi-rifle-looking-things designed to jam drones. But they did nothing, as should be expected from long range drones which have stronger GPS detectors shielded from ground noise and inertial guidance to take over if they actually are being jammed.

https://nitter.poast.org/bayraktar_1love/status/1812223404885573741#m

 

In law, it would be an act of war if carried out or even attempted.

In fact, it wouldn't because Scholz would just scholz things in his usual way.

 

Scholz perfectly captured:

 

Britain's Ministry of Defence estimates that Russia has lost 70k+ troops in the May and June fighting.

Depending on their nature (armoured vs. mechanized vs. infantry), that's equivalent to at least three and probably four, possibly five, entire divisions.

In two months.


Edit:
That's KIA (dead) as well as WIA (wounded) and MIA (missing)

 

What are the chances of Russia losing 1 millions lives by 2026?

 

Slim. With Western armies, IIRC the WWII to Vietnam era historic killed-to-wounded ratio was 4 wounded for every 1 killed, but this is Russia, so we're talking about 7:1 or more.

A million dead Russian means 7 million wounded, many of them severely (2+ months in hospital, followed by months of recovery) or permanently disabled (hands, arms, feet, legs, eyes, etc. lost).

Even in Russia, that will force a course correction for fear of a revolution before it gets that far.

Send more cluster munitions and quickly

 

Depends what you mean. If you mean KIA, very slim as current estimates are around 200k KIA. If you mean “permanently removed from the battlefield”, KIA, MIA, POW, permanently disabled, then really, really good. There is even a chance theY’ll hit that mark by the end of this year if Russia maintains the over 1k a day they are currently averaging.

 

Ukraine has really put a lot of effort into Vovchansk. At one point Russia controlled about half of it, but Ukraine has actually pushed the Russians out a large chunk of it (or even most, depending on which situation map you are looking at). Russians commenting on the situation are depressed. Russia is continuing to send reinforcements there, but it seems unlikely to change the tide of battle.

Depending on which map you look at, that pocket holding out in the one factory may or may not still exist, but the the front has retreated so if they are still there rescue is basically impossible. While the Russians are still in the heart of the city, that might be pinched off too creating an even worse disaster.

 

Here is a brutal article about how Russia treats refuseniks:

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/06/11/they-knock-you-out-and-load-you-onto-the-plane

Short version - if you are in the army, you are going to be sent to the front to die not matter what your mental or physical condition. You don't have the option of going to jail instead anymore - you are held in a overcrowded, highly abusive holding pen waiting for a court date that will never come because you will be dragged to the front before that happens.

 

We now have images of it, and it was blanketed in multiple cluster-munition ATACMS hits. We also have a Russian obituary of the captain in charge of the site, so that's good news.

Looks like the Russian are now really spreading out their S-300 / S-400 sites to prevent even a cluster munition from taking out multiple vehicles at once. However, it looks like there is a limitation in the S-300 (technical? doctrinal? convenience?) so the control vehicle, power vehicle, and radar vehicle were very close to each other in this instance, and those are the most important to hit.

 

Like how? If most of (if not all) the forced-conscripted and abused soldiers end up dead at the front, who are going to sow chaos at home?

 

Looks like the nations were Russia is trying to hire saboteurs includes Ukraine itself. There is a dark-web site where crime lords hire thugs for one off jobs (like beating someone up for late payments on drugs), and Russia has started offering large amounts for burning Ukrainian war equipment or attacking personnel. Already three army utility vehicles have been burned.

https://nitter.poast.org/ChrisO_wiki/status/1812747900327203086#m

 

I think he means societal damage, not revolutionary change. There's already some hints of this. Russian soldiers get little respect from regular people now, and those staying home - especially in the rust belt - are getting rich from all the new war fabrication going on. Putin is more popular then ever because he has really spread the war profiteering to the common people. It just takes lots of deaths and lots of permanently damaged people to keep it going.

 

That Yak-52 prop plane keeps slowly racking up kills against Russian observation drones. It's gotten so bad that there are multiple Russian Telegram posts about what a bother it is.

Ukraine is going to step up this campaign. They are already training a small fleet of light prop planes to do this job on multiple fronts.

 

I wonder if the horrible treatment Russia is dishing out to their own troops is because of a serious manpower shortage. Russia claims to be getting something like 25,000 volunteers a month, but estimates of Russian losses the last month are somewhere between 40,000 and 60,000. Their offensive seems to be petering out and sources of fuel to keep it going are low.

But it also looks like any Ukrainian counter-offensive is going to have to wait to see how the US election goes. It would probably be in their best interests to keep the Russian on an offensive posture until then. Don't want the Russians setting up the layered defenses they are so good at.

EDIT: Russia is now offering a sign-up fee of 1,700,000 rubles for volunteers to join the ground forces, doubling the rate that was offered just a few days ago. Another data point that they are desperate for bodies.

 

Looks like the Ukrainians have withdrawn from the Krynky beachhead.

 

There are reports that Russians are starting to get war fatigue. Not that their support for the war and Putin is decreasing, rather they are getting tired of hearing about it. The Russian populace isn't believing the propaganda any more and, in fact, is reportedly starting to believe that whatever the talking heads say, the opposite is actually happening. As the war drags on, there is a very real chance that the war will just slide off of the news cycle and into the background for Russians. There will, obviously, be bodies returning home on a daily basis, but that's going to be largely non-ethnic Russians and not impact your average Russian.

However, one thing that may impact Russians is that there is, reportedly, going to be the largest tax increase in Russian history coming up in the relatively near future as Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to pay for the war. Again, not an indicator that the war is coming to an end soon, just Russia is spending more and more to keep the war going.

 

Add Greece to the nations sending F-16's to Ukraine. Sort of. They will be selling 30 of them to the US first because they don't want to be blamed for selling them to Ukraine (not working - Russia is pissed) and because these are some of the oldest models, and need upgrading before they would be useful to Ukraine.